Tropical Storm Rafael develops in the Caribbean. As it approaches the Gulf Coast, it poses the threat of becoming a rare November hurricane. Before arriving in Cuba, the storm is expected to strengthen into a hurricane. Rafael could impact the Gulf Coast, particularly Louisiana, by Saturday.
Tropical Storm Rafael Forms, Threatens Gulf Coast
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring Tropical Storm Rafael, which formed over the Caribbean Sea on November 4, 2024. Rafael, the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, could pose a threat to the Gulf Coast, particularly in Louisiana. The storm’s formation marks the 10th named storm since September 24th, breaking the previous record.
Meteorologists predict that Rafael will strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall in Cuba, possibly as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane. The system is then expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico, where its path will become less certain. While the storm is expected to weaken as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast, people from Texas to Florida should remain vigilant and prepared.
Tropical Storm Rafael is headed to Cuba on Wednesday and is forecast to be a hurricane at landfall there. pic.twitter.com/N1wWiU94XV
— Hurricane Journal (@hurricanejrnl) November 5, 2024
Rare November Hurricane Threat
Only four November hurricanes have made landfall on mainland America in recorded history. The most recent was Hurricane Nicole, which occurred in 2022. This unusual timing raises concerns for coastal communities that may be unprepared for late-season storms.
“Hurricanes in November do happen, but they are far less common than in peak season months,” explains Alex DesRosiers. “In a historical record spanning over 150 years, there have been roughly seven times more hurricanes in the peak season month of September when compared to November.”
Rafael’s chances of becoming a hurricane are boosted by warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear in its path. However, as it approaches the northern Gulf, cooler waters and increased wind shear may help to weaken the system before it reaches land.
🌀Tropical Storm #Rafael formed in the Caribbean today, and is expected to strengthen into a #Hurricane sometime tomorrow.
📽️I put together a quick video on the future of Rafael and where it will go
🔗Link here (included a teaser below): https://t.co/Yf5wRMtWNp pic.twitter.com/Xdck9Sn8Sb
— Brady Harris (@StormCat5_) November 5, 2024
Impacts and Preparations
As Rafael progresses, several regions are bracing for impact. Tropical storms are expected to hit Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, with the latter potentially facing hurricane-force winds. Rafael, a potential Category 1 or 2 hurricane, is expected to hit Cuba on Wednesday.
“It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast,” states Larry Kelly of the National Weather Service. “If it does, it will be late Friday through Saturday.”
Residents in potentially affected areas should stay updated on Rafael’s progress and heed local authorities’ warnings. While it is too early to cancel weekend plans, being prepared for rain and strong winds is prudent. The Florida Keys may experience tropical storm conditions by Wednesday night, and the entire Florida peninsula may see increased moisture, resulting in muggier conditions and scattered showers.
As Rafael approaches, coastal communities are urged to review their hurricane preparedness plans and stay informed about official weather updates. While the storm’s exact path and intensity are unknown, the possibility of significant impacts along the Gulf Coast serves as a reminder that hurricane season does not officially end until it does.
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