A recent poll conducted by Marquette University reveals that former President Donald Trump is overwhelmingly favored by white working-class voters nationwide, as Vice President Kamala Harris struggles to gain traction with this critical demographic. The findings underscore the challenges Democrats face in appealing to this group ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
The poll, released on August 15, shows Trump leading Harris by a staggering 40 points among white voters without a college degree. This demographic has been a cornerstone of Trump’s base since his 2016 campaign, and it appears to be solidifying even further as the 2024 election looms. Trump's dominance in this group could prove decisive in key battleground states, where the white working-class vote has historically swayed election outcomes.
WaPo & RCP polling averages show Trump leading in 5 of 7 battleground states. New Fox News poll shows Trump leading Harris by 8% w/ independents.
Trump is in a better position than his 2016 race (which he won) & 2020 race (which he lost by approx. 40,000 votes in a handful of… pic.twitter.com/kpTBYAz0uE
— Prodigal (@ProdigalThe3rd) August 15, 2024
Trump’s significant lead among these voters highlights the difficulty Harris, or any Democratic candidate, may face in trying to win back this segment of the electorate. The former president's appeal to white working-class voters is rooted in his populist message and promises to prioritize American jobs and industries. This message resonates strongly with those who feel left behind by globalization and economic shifts.
The poll’s findings are particularly troubling for Harris, as she not only trails Trump among white working-class voters but also faces a considerable enthusiasm gap. While Trump’s supporters are highly motivated to turn out for him, Harris has struggled to energize her base, especially among white working-class voters who are skeptical of the Biden administration's policies.
New poll: 55% of voters in swing states think that Donald Trump is “weird.”
Just a few days ago, Trump was blaming JD Vance for the weird thing. “They’re saying that about JD,” Trump said. “Not about me.” Sorry, Donald. They think you’re weird too. pic.twitter.com/KdFoKMCJvi
— Keith Boykin (@keithboykin) August 12, 2024
Analysts suggest that Harris’s difficulty in connecting with these voters stems from a perception that her policies and priorities do not align with their economic concerns. The Biden administration's focus on climate change and social justice issues, while popular with the Democratic base, has not resonated as strongly with white working-class voters who prioritize jobs and economic security.
The Marquette University poll also sheds light on the broader challenges facing the Democratic Party as it heads into the 2024 election cycle. With the economy likely to be a central issue, Trump’s economic populism appears to be a winning message among white working-class voters. The Biden administration's handling of inflation, energy policies, and trade could further alienate this key demographic, making it difficult for any Democratic candidate to bridge the gap.
Moreover, the poll indicates that Trump’s support among white working-class voters is not confined to any particular region but is a national phenomenon. This broad-based support could give Trump a significant advantage in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where white working-class voters make up a large portion of the electorate.
As the 2024 campaign heats up, both Trump and Harris will likely focus heavily on economic issues, with Trump emphasizing his record of job creation and deregulation during his presidency. Harris, on the other hand, may need to recalibrate her messaging to address the concerns of white working-class voters more directly. However, overcoming the deep-seated skepticism of this demographic will be no easy task.
